A raging fireball floats in the sky. But, we never stop to think of the power of the Sun. What if a powerful coronal mass ejection hits Earth?
The impact could destroy life as we know it today. Yet, this natural disaster event is unknown to the masses. Because many of us live in a bubble. We think life, as we know it today, will always remain as it is.
History tells another story though. We live in a chaotic universe with life only roped on for the ride.
This is why it’s important you understand powerful coronal mass ejections. More specifically, you understand the worst-case event. Because many articles on the subject today use past recent events in their analysis. Then, they conclude life will go on unaffected. Hogwash!
In my discussion, I’m going to push the envelope. I will peek into an extreme edge case event, and focus on the effects on the U.S. power grids. And to drive my point home, we’ll answer 11 relevant questions you need to know.
#1 What is a coronal mass ejection?
The quick answer:
A large eruption of magnetized plasma from the surface of the Sun.
But, let’s dive deeper. You can then better appreciate the randomness and severity of coronal mass ejections.
First, think of the Sun as a huge hot ball of glowing gas and plasma. And on this ball, A LOT goes on. I compare the Sun to New York City, the city that never sleeps. Because inside the Sun is constant chaos.
But unlike the cold weather in New York City, the temperature of the Sun is insanely high. As a result, positively charged ions and negatively charged electrons constantly move around. This superheated matter we call plasma.
Now, this always-moving plasma creates magnetic fields. The magnetic field lines then shift, tangle, twist, and reconnect causing disruption. This activity astronomers think leads to sudden random explosions of energy. In particular, expanding bubbles of plasma build-up. These bubbles then drive out from the Sun with magnetic fields and can erupt with solar flares.
To visualize, think of a tree branch that you bend and bend some more. As you apply more force and bend the branch, it’ll eventually snap. At this moment, like a bullet from a rifle, the charged particles violently fire out from the sun. And if the Earth is unlucky and falls inside the scope of this refile, it’ll get hit.
So you can see how random coronal mass ejections are. It’s not something we can accurately analyze using Earth instruments.
#2 How does a coronal mass ejection affect Earth?
I’m going to compare Earth to an Alternating Current (AC) generator to explain. I’ve broken my explanation into five simple parts.
Part #1: At a hydroelectric plant, a turbine spins from the force of moving water. A generator connected to the turbine then converts mechanical energy into electrical energy.
In short, the turbine makes copper wire in the generator spin around large magnets. This produces electricity. Then, the faster the coil of wire spins, the greater the current the generator produces.
This is Faraday’s law of induction. A changing magnetic field generates an electrical current in a conductor.
Part #2: The sun erupts with a coronal mass ejection. Then, soon thereafter magnetized plasma slams into Earth’s magnetic field.
We call this event a Geomagnetic Disturbance (GMD).
Part #3: This collision bends Earth’s magnetic field. In some instances, this collision can overwhelm Earth’s magnetic field.
As a result, geoelectric fields form in Earth’s upper atmosphere.
Part #4: On Earth, thousands of miles of low resistance transmission lines exist. Also, inside Earth, many low resistance manmade ground wires exist.
Now, think of all these as the wires in our generator from Part #1. Each of these wires acts like a geomagnetic antenna.
Part #5: With the change in Earth’s magnetic field, the wires from Part #4 will have currents induced into them. We call this Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC).
This shows how unwanted currents can easily flow through our power grids.
Better understanding GIC
To point out, the Earth’s magnetic field changes slowly from GMD events. In other words, Earth’s magnetic field will almost always be non-time-varying.
This is because an almost uniform stream of charged particles hit Earth. Also, these charged particles travel from the Sun to Earth at almost the same speed.
Of course, there will be peaks of pulses of varying duration from minutes to hours. In one 5-minute interval, the density of charged particles over Earth may increase. In the next several minutes, the density of charged particles may decrease. By and large, it’s fairly uniform.
As a result, the induced current is almost always a quasi Direct Current (DC). This quasi direct current measures in frequency between 0.1 to 0.001 Hz according to research. Keep in mind, a pure direct current has a frequency of zero as the name implies.
Important note: static magnetic fields don’t change intensity or direction over time. So, they have a frequency of 0 Hz. For this reason, the Earth’s magnetic field without a GMD event is a static field.
Further, the U.S. power system uses 60 Hz frequency AC. So, you can see why we call GIC quasi-DC when compared to our power system.
Important note: in the U.S. the electricity changes direction with a frequency of 60 cycles per second or 60 Hz. Given that, the electromagnetic field changes its orientation 60 times every second.
Now, the change in Earth’s magnetic field creates electric fields. According to North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), a GMD event will cause a 100-year peak geoelectric field of 8.05 volts/mile and 32.19 volts/mile for high and low conductive regions, respectively.
This explains why long transmission lines become more vulnerable to GMD events. It’s because the total cross-sectional area of the line loop and ground return is large.
As a result, these lines capture more of the changing magnetic field as the field travels over them. Thus, these lines will have large currents induced into them. Even more, if the lines are properly oriented in the direction of the changing magnetic field.
Important note: I believe the NERC listed geoelectric field values are very low. Earth can and will experience a much more powerful GMD event in the future. I’ll discuss this in greater depth in later sections.
Thomas Gold’s Studies on coronal mass ejections
To dive even deeper, let’s switch our focus to Thomas Gold. He was an astrophysicist and professor at Cornell University. He did amazing work in the 1960s on solar weather.
Professor Gold studied powerful coronal mass ejections. He found they could cause huge lightning storms across the globe at once. These storms could then start fires in all corners of the world.
Also, we have evidence of how solar activity can lead to other natural disasters. They can trigger earthquakes through the disruption of Earth’s magnetosphere.
Tectonic plates on the verge of moving could trigger earlier due to a GMD event. Even more, Earth’s volcanic activity could increase following the same logic.
It’s important to realize, our Sun is a star. Stars are violent exploding balls of gas.
Everything in the universe goes through a time of instability. It’s ignorant of us humans to think the Sun will always remain silent so we can lead comfortable lives.
#3 What are the chances of a coronal mass ejection hitting Earth?
In 1859, a powerful storm of charged particles slammed into Earth’s atmosphere. This coronal mass ejection was named the Carrington Event. It became the first powerful solar storm recorded.
Before the event, dark spots, or sunspots as we call them today, were observed on the surface of the Sun. Soon thereafter, an ejection of billions of tons of charged particles rocketed towards Earth.
This event compromised Earth’s magnetic field, resulting in:
- Shorted telegraph wires across all Northern Europe and America
- Some telegraph systems still operating despite losing connection to the power grid
- Widespread fires
Over a century later in 1989, a large coronal mass ejection hit Quebec and Northeast America. Some say this GMD event was more powerful than the Carrington Event.
Keep in mind, both these events were major from our perspective as humans. But, from an astrophysical lens, they’re small.
That said, humans have limited data on large coronal mass ejections. We’ve only been collecting good data for the past half-century.
Right now, we predict every 200 or so years, Earth will experience a large hit like the Carrington Event. But, no one knows when an even larger event could strike.
#4 How much warning time do we have from a powerful coronal mass ejection?
Our technology in monitoring the Sun’s activity is improving. We collect data on solar winds, changes in the Sun’s magnetic field, and so much more.
NASA has satellites that monitor the Sun’s activity. One of these satellites is parked at Lagrange point L1, called ‘Advanced Composition Explorer’ (ACE). It’s roughly a distance of 870,000 miles from Earth.
At these Lagrange points, we can park an object indefinitely and it will not move. The benefit is, at L1 we have a clear and close view of the Sun. This gives us a greater advanced warning of possible solar events.
To that end, according to The Astrophysical Journal, we’ll have a 26.4 ±15.3 hour warning for a normal event.
But, for an extreme event, we may only have a 20-minute warning. This is according to the Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate.
All things considered, with the Sun, there’s a lot we don’t know. We can’t count on even our best tracking equipment, software simulations, and satellites. We may still miss the early detection of a powerful outburst from the Sun.
#5 How to safeguard Earth from a powerful coronal mass ejection?
Preparation is key. Today, we can do a lot to protect power grids. Let’s go over some of the safeguards.
Shed loads from transformers or shut off the power grid
With an advance warning, we could shed loads from the power grid. Also, take our critical electrical equipment offline.
This would help protect large power transformers. To explain, when too much current enters the core of a transformer, it’ll saturate.
Manufacturers design transformers to only carry a set amount of current. When the current goes too high, the magnetic field spreads out from the transformer’s core.
The magnetic field will spread into the surrounding transformer parts. As a result, this event can overheat all components of a transformer.
At this point, the transformer core will have surpassed its max magnetic flux capabilities.
For example, random currents will flow in the input and output wires. If a transformer doesn’t immediately fail, it’ll degrade from wires and insulation overheating. Then weeks or months later it’ll fail.
So, by shedding loads, we’d reduce the burden placed on a transformer. The transformer can then more safely absorb current from a coronal mass ejection.
Now, to pull this off, grid operators need proper training to take action in an hour’s notice. This would replace long-term disaster with short-term devastation.
Upgrade protective relays
Upgrading outdated and aged protective relays in power grids. In short, relays control the opening of circuit breakers in electric circuits. They’re used more for high-voltage circuits.
To understand the problem and solution, let’s discuss transformers more in-depth.
When a transformer core saturates, the current and voltage waveforms become distorted. Sometimes they look nothing like a normal sinusoidal waveform in an AC circuit.
As a result, protective relays can trip in non-conventional ways. More specifically, old-type electromagnetic relays can’t properly monitor these distorted waveforms. So they may trip early or late.
By using smart modern digital relays, we can program them to more accurately react to these situations.
This way, we’d safely isolate all sensitive parts of an electrical grid. The most expensive electrical equipment could go unharmed.
DC blocking devices
Many DC blocking devices exist. These devices work to block quasi-DC flow in AC systems from GMD events. They’re typically used for transformers. The devices include:
- Disconnect at the neutral to ground connection
- Inductor at the neutral to ground connection
- Resistor at the neutral to ground connection
- Capacitor at the neutral to ground connection
- Capacitor with by-pass at the neutral to ground connection
- Semiconductor switch at the neutral to ground connection
For example, a capacitor only allows AC flow. So, they’re used to block the quasi-DC flow from a GMD event in a transformer’s neutral to ground connection.
#6 Problems with today’s safeguards
NASA tells us not to worry about coronal mass ejections. They’ll provide us with an early warning.
“Similarly, scientists at NASA and NOAA give warnings to electric companies, spacecraft operators and airline pilots before a CME comes to Earth so that these groups can take proper precautions.”
NASA has a dog in the fight too. Their equipment in space is sensitive to solar activity. So they do their best to monitor the Sun.
But, my focus remains on powerful solar storms. In this case, NASA may not even have the ability to help.
Keep in mind, the magnitude of these GMD events is difficult to predict. We don’t want to shut down our power grids unless we absolutely need to. A false alarm could cost billions or even trillions of dollars.
The problem becomes, for major solar events we won’t have much warning. We can’t flip one switch to instantly safeguard our power grids.
Even more, we don’t have enough data on these events because they’re so rare. It’s ignorant to think we’ve thought of every solar event edge case.
Yes, our technology has improved year after year. But too many variables exist that we don’t have data over. Plus, there’s so much we don’t understand about the Sun.
This becomes a huge challenge. There’s no way to accurately model every global magnetospheric change from a sun outburst.
With that said, let’s go over the issues from each of our previous safeguards from Section #4.
Sun monitoring satellites
A sunspot alone won’t give us the entire story if a coronal mass ejection will soon come our way.
Next, a lot of our satellites in space are old and not in optimal condition. Plus, satellites can’t instantly identify Electric and Magnetic Field (EMF) effects from coronal mass ejections.
The EMF effects need to strike a monitoring device that can first detect them. Given most of these devices are in Earths’ orbit, not counting the ones at Lagrange points, the warning time may not be enough.
These relays will experience additional relay torque from harmonics induced by the quasi-DC flow from GMD events. Thus, this can cause them to not properly trip.
Important note: electromagnetic relays block direct currents. This is because they use Current Transformers (CTs) and Potential Transformers (PTs) to monitor AC circuits. CTs and PTs read AC signals only.
But, when quasi-DC flow superimposes on AC, the AC waveform will change. This can then disrupt the relay tripping mechanism. In other words, the relay may become confused about when to trip.
On that note, I see these relays installed all across California. I don’t see owners replacing them anytime soon either.
By and large, many won’t properly operate in non-ideal situations. Their limited mechanical operation and age will become points of failure. Some of these devices in the field today are 50 years old.
Then outside of the U.S., in less modern countries, these relays are even more common to find.
These digital operating devices have components that age like anything else. This can make the operating accuracy drift by 10% to 15%.
Then, the programming comes into question. For example, how is the Root Mean Square (RMS) value calculated for the voltage waveform?
Then, what’s the accuracy given a lot of distortion? This is important since GIC flow can cause waveform distortion.
To prevent misoperation, these relays need sophisticated algorithms. We saw with electromechanical relays, harmonics can cause a lot of problems.
So, microprocessor relays need proper measurement algorithms. This allows them to detect the fundamental frequency between all the harmonics.
Next, these relays have set time delays. After their set time delay, they trigger circuit breakers to open.
Circuit breakers then have operating times too. None of these devices operate instantly.
Typically it takes 8 cycles or 0.13 seconds for a segment of the power grid to disconnect. Keep in mind, the total operating time also depends on the designed protection scheme. Every protection scheme differs.
That said, I’ve seen plenty of cases where the operating time is much greater than 0.13 seconds. This doesn’t even include the age factor from wear and tear.
So with enough operation delay, electrical equipment can be damaged.
Further, a set standard doesn’t exist for newly installed protection components. Both in the relay model selection and the relay trip settings.
Finally, given the lack of standards for the upkeep of these devices, many unknowns exist. Who’s to say new microprocessor relays always operate better than old electromagnetic relays?
Important note: microprocessor and electromagnetic relays won’t monitor currents entering transformers at the neutral to ground connection. This connection point is where most of the power grid damage from solar events will come from.
Human errors from chaos and fear
With a powerful coronal mass ejection, we may only have hours of warning. So, control room operators will scramble. And no matter how prepared you think you are, not all personalities can deal with high stress.
Above all, I don’t see the proper training in place to handle a powerful coronal mass ejection. I’ve spoken with many people in the power industry, and the training is nonexistent.
What’s more, look at how the U.S. responded to COVID-19 with weeks of advance warning. Our response was slow and far from optimal. Plus, we had and have much more invested in virus pandemics because of SARS, H1N1, Ebola, and so on.
DC blocking systems
Let’s go over the shortcomings of each device:
Disconnect at the neutral to ground connection: we need an advanced warning to flip the switch. That’s a problem of its own.
Now, if we leave the switch open, it’ll cause voltage transients and problems with ground fault detection. Also, it could cause safety and insulation problems in certain fault situations.
Inductor at the neutral to ground connection: an inductor is the same as a short in a DC circuit. We use inductors to limit the flow of AC, but GMD events induce quasi-DC flow. Thus, an inductor wouldn’t help.
Resistor at the neutral to ground connection: they’ll reduce GIC flow. But, they’ll also reduce ground fault protection sensitivity.
Capacitor at the neutral to ground connection: they’ll completely block GIC flow. But, they may cause ferroresonance, or excessive heating, in equipment.
Capacitor with by-pass at the neutral to ground connection: this actually is a good solution. The bypass will limit the ferroresonance issue. But, like the disconnect option, operators need enough advance warning to flip the switch.
Semiconductor switch at the neutral to ground connection: not proven in the field. But, I believe this is the most promising device of all the options.
Given all these devices, the installation cost is a huge factor as well.
Important to realize, power grids are the world’s largest machines. The cost to install DC blocking devices everywhere is very expensive.
Cities and counties have greater electrical problems to deal with today. The U.S. aging power grid requires a lot of attention as it is. How can we plan for the future, with so many existing problems today?
Finally, I’ve seen many transformers over the years. I rarely see any of these DC blocking devices installed. Frankly, I rarely hear the subject even discussed.
#7 My fear from a powerful coronal mass ejection
With all I’ve discussed so far, I believe the U.S. power grid is well protected from what most view as an extreme GMD event. An event like the Carrington Event.
But again, my focus is on an outlier GMD event of epic proportions. An event that I believe happened not too long ago in Earth’s history. I’ll discuss this in greater detail in Section #10.
That said, my primary fear is with power transformer damage from low-frequency high magnitude currents.
Transformers step up and step down voltages. From voltages as high as 500,000 volts down to 120 volts. So, without transformers, life, as we know would instantly end.
Let’s now rewind back to coronal mass ejections. According to NERC, the created geoelectric fields from a violent GMD event will be small in magnitude. So in return, the quasi direct currents will be small in magnitude.
I don’t agree with NERC. We’ve only been collecting good data on the Sun for less than a century. That’s a blink of an eye in the Sun’s life.
What does this mean? The Sun can shoot out much more charged particles than we imagine. As a result, the created geoelectric fields on Earth will be much stronger. Thus, the quasi direct currents will be larger in magnitude.
Moving forward, we’ll refer to these low-frequency high magnitude currents as GIC. The GIC flows into transformers from the neutral to ground connections.
The GIC will then superimpose over the 60 Hz transformer frequencies.
This superimposition will then cause a transformer’s frequency to drop. A transformer’s electrical waveforms at this point can become unrecognizable. Undoubtedly, this is where the problems begin.
Keep in mind, the GIC flow also acts as an offset. It’ll cause an additional magnetic flux in the transformer core. Thus, it’ll push the AC flux waveform up closer to saturation in one half-cycle.
Important note: transformers are designed to only operate in the linear region of their magnetizing characteristics as dictated by the 60 Hz frequency. Given that, the GIC flow shifts a transformer’s operating point outside of the linear region.
Transformer saturation from GIC
GIC flow can saturate the magnetic core of a transformer. This is commonly referred to as half-cycle saturation.
Once saturated, the magnetic circuit segment of a transformer won’t be able to carry any extra magnetic field. As a result, the transformer will behave non-linearly. This leads to:
- Need for reactive power compensation
Let’s focus on heating. A transformer’s rating dictates how much current can flow through its copper windings. If too much current flows, losses in the windings increase fast.
Copper losses are the wastage of power from losses in a transformer’s windings. Where ‘I’ is the current through the windings, and ‘R’ is the resistance of the winding material. In other words, it’s the heat produced by the current through the windings.
At this point, the entire transformer begins to overheat. This includes the oil, windings, containment, insulation system, and everything else.
Important note: with GIC flow, many things happen at once inside of a transformer. It’s not a domino effect.
I’m going to explain in detail how the transformer damage happens. Let’s look at the EMF equation of a transformer:
= applied voltage across the transformer coil
= number of turns in the primary winding of the transformer
= maximum flux in the transformer core. Where “flux” is the magnetic flux. In other words, the measurement of the total magnetic field that passes through a given area.
Reconfiguring the EMF equation we get:
Now, let’s put the puzzle pieces together for our scenario.
We first inject low-frequency high magnitude currents into the transformer. We do this from the neutral to the ground connection.
This becomes our GIC flow from a coronal mass ejection. Assume the voltage remains constant.
Next, from the GIC flow, the frequency (f) will decrease as we learned. As a result, the flux volume (Φm) in the transformer core will increase as our equation shows.
Since the transformer core area is fixed, the flux density increases. The operating flux density for transformers is typically 1.7T. So, when the flux density goes above 1.7T, a transformer’s core losses will no longer remain linear.
Rather, the losses increase rapidly. The transformer core can no longer contain the flux. As a result, the flux overflows into all parts of the transformer.
This creates overheating from eddy losses. The transformer can then quickly fail.
Important note: certain types of transformers are more vulnerable to this internal heating. For example, a three-phase autotransformer bank.
Inductive reactance of a coil
Inductive reactance () is the opposition to the flow of current-like resistance. Except the opposition is sourced from an inductor and not a resistor. So, the higher the value of , the less current flows.
The inductive reactance equation is
Where ‘L’ is the reactance of a coil of wire. In our case, the transformer’s coil of wire.
As the frequency (f) decreases from GIC flow, the also decreases. This means more current can flow in the transformer’s windings.
So, the GIC flow can now more easily overload the transformer’s windings.
Important note: inductors limit AC flow but don’t block DC flow. Since DC flow has a frequency of zero, let’s make in the equation. Thus, . This shows us how GIC flow will travel unhindered inside of a transformer.
Volts per hertz ratio
Important to realize, the problem is not so much the under-frequency. But, the volts per hertz ratio. We’ll see how the inductive reactance we discussed also plays a role.
A transformer will saturate and overheat when the volts per hertz ratio increases. In our case, the frequency decreases from the GIC flow.
As a result, the magnetizing current increases. In other words, too much current will flow in a transformer’s windings.
This gives you another perspective on how the flux density increases through increased GIC flow.
Let’s go over Ohm’s Law for inductive reactance to better understand:
I = current
V = voltage
f = frequency
L = inductance
You can see as the ratio between voltage and frequency grows, the current increases.
Now, if we could somehow decrease the voltage, proportional to the frequency, we could avoid a lot of the transformer damage. In short, a sweet ratio between voltage and frequency exists, where a transformer operates unharmed.
Important note: the quasi-DC flow alone in most GMD events is not a cause for concern. It’s the interaction of quasi-DC flow with 60 Hz equipment that causes problems.
In my edge case analysis though, the transformer damage would still happen. This is because of the high current magnitude from the GIC.
How can we immediately protect against GIC?
Low resistance transformer neutral to ground connections become ideal paths for low-frequency currents. Especially in regions with high resistivity soil.
Important note: the same planetary magnetic field won’t create the same surface electric field in all areas of the globe. This is because local ground conductivity differs in areas.
Now, operators can shed load from transformers, to reduce winding heat as we learned. But, with a powerful coronal mass ejection, it will not make a difference.
I believe the best future option is to use smart high voltage power electronics. Using the semiconductor switch at the neutral to the ground connection as discussed in Section #5.
This option will instantly block high-magnitude GIC flow. The blocking will be automatic and without any of the negative effects.
In the meantime, installing neutral to ground switches would certainly help. In advance of a GMD event, we would temporarily open the neutral to ground switch.
This would prevent a lot of transformer damage if we can time it right. Again, this is not something I commonly find installed in the field today.
#8 What type of destruction could a powerful coronal mass ejection cause?
The destruction could be unimaginable.
In the U.S., the greatest problems I foresee are with large power transformers. In developing nations, the problems would be devastating on many fronts.
These developing nations don’t have standardized electrical designs and have outdated protective devices. So, the damage would be unworldly. But, let’s just focus on large power transformers.
Hidden challenges with large power transformers
Large power transformers can fail from unwanted geomagnetic induced currents as we learned. As a result, we’d lose power to parts of our grid.
Now, these transformers you can’t simply go buy at a local yard. Almost every large power transformer that’s produced is already bought. Production just keeps up with demand.
This is due to their great cost and because they’re customized for every client’s needs. For this reason, I rarely see large backup power transformers sitting idle at sites.
What’s more, the manufacturing time takes 12 or so months in non-distressed times. Also considering, the manufacturing plants all have locations outside of the U.S.
To that end, imagine the chaos if the following unfolds:
- The entire world needs large power transformers manufactured at once. The 12 months of lead time could turn into several years or more.
- The manufacturing facilities lose power. How would they then even manufacture transformers?
To top it off, shipping large power transformers from overseas takes months. To point out also, highways need to close to transport these massive units over state lines.
Restarting the Power Grid
The power grid doesn’t have a single switch to flip it on and off. It requires a huge coordinated effort to black start the power grid. It could take a week to months depending on the severity of the GMD event.
This is all considering the damage to equipment is minimal.
#9 What’s the impact on the U.S. economy if a powerful coronal mass ejection hits Earth?
The modern world today heavily relies on electricity and radio communication. Think of all your home appliances, computers, cars, food, and so much more.
In short, a large part of the world would crumble. The impact would ripple through the world’s economies. To illustrate, I put together the following short impact list:
- Drinking water: water treatment requires electricity. Also, the transportation of water requires electric motor-driven pumps.
- Wastewater: cleaning wastewater. Think of the waste from your toilet. Also, a network of sewage pumps makes the wastewater system.
- Food: farming, processing, transporting, and storing food.
- Light: powering streets, buildings, and home lights.
- Hardware: smartphones, laptops, home appliances, and so on.
- Space equipment: satellites and spacecraft in orbit. These pieces of equipment need electricity in manufacturing and for maintenance on Earth. Especially, since they would certainly be damaged from a powerful coronal mass ejection.
- Internet: the internet would go down. As a result, banking would halt. Our financial system completely relies on computers and the internet today.
- HVAC: heating and cooling of homes and buildings.
- Healthcare: most equipment in hospitals is electrically powered. Also, pharmaceutical manufacturing requires electrical power.
The loss of these few listed items would cripple the U.S. economy like no other time in history. Unlike the coronavirus, the economy couldn’t unfreeze even if we wanted.
The issue would no longer circle around millions of unemployed and business bankruptcies. Instead, anarchy and deaths would take center stage if we lose power for more than even a couple of weeks.
#9 How long would it take the U.S. economy to recover from a powerful coronal mass ejection?
Given the state of today’s power grid, I would say easily over a decade. The U.S. power grid today is very old as it is.
Important to realize, this assumes no secondary problems arise from a blackout. For example, a virus pandemic due to bad sanitation.
In short, electricity is the foundation that holds together today’s society. Without it, everything we as humans know would unravel.
#10 What happened at the end of the last ice age?
Between 11,000 to 15,000 years ago, Earth had large climate swings. This was around the time when the last ice age ended. So the temperature was very cold and then began to warm. Then suddenly the temperature cooled again before the final warming period.
These temperature swings were sudden and extreme. Research shows this all transpired over a matter of several years. Geologically speaking, changes in climate unfold over hundreds and thousands of years. So, any such climate change in several years is mindblowing.
For this reason, scientists have hypothesized a comet may have struck Earth. But, scientists haven’t found any comet impact evidence. For example, a crater or pieces of a comet.
And this is where Robert M. Schoch, a Professor of Natural Science at Boston University, enters the picture. He believes the sudden climate change was from a powerful coronal mass ejection. This event was then followed by massive floods from 10,000 plus foot high ice sheets melting.
What’s more, research and gathered data support Robert’s theory. Proxy indicators from isotype measurements of ice and sediment cores give us a lens into past solar activity.
Plus, this coincides with a period of many large earthquakes. Then, followed by heavy volcanic activity. And as we learned, coronal mass ejections can cause earthquakes and volcanic activity.
Not to mention, this theory may capture the fall of the Lost City of Atlantis. So maybe a great civilization really did exist before the ancient Egyptians. It was just wiped out by a sudden cataclysmic natural disaster.
#11 What can the U.S. do to better prepare for a powerful coronal mass ejection?
There’s so much we don’t know about this natural disaster. But at the same, we’re so vulnerable. If a major event that possibly ended the last ice age hit Earth today, there’s not much we could do.
But still, we need to prepare for varying degrees of outbursts from the Sun. Because we still can prevent a lot of unnecessary damage.
Now, one huge problem stems from strong mitigation plans being too costly. Especially, given we haven’t experienced a major event in modern history. So naturally, it’s a tough expense to justify. Why bankrupt a state with starving people, to protect against a pie in the sky GMD event?…
To play devil’s advocate, I know NASA and the U.S. government have done quite a bit. They’ve created protection schemes to combat what they think is a large GMD event. But, they’re not considering a powerful outburst from the Sun. As a result, the mitigation plans in place today are simply insufficient.
All in all, we don’t have our finger on the pulse of this possible catastrophe. That said, my mitigation suggestions include the following:
- Install neutral to ground switches for power transformers.
- Increase research funding for power electronic switches at transformer neutral to ground connections.
- Bring large power transformer manufacturing facilities to America. No different than the issue of manufacturing masks, gloves, pharmaceuticals, and so on in China before the COVID-19 outbreak. This level of outsourcing puts the U.S. at the mercy of other nations for essential supplies.
- Retrofit and upgrade all parts of the aging power grids.
- Install real-time GIC monitors on power transformers.
- Better standardize design models for all segments of power grids. This begins with utilities adopting set standards.
- Properly train grid operators for this edge case GMD event.
- Create a plan of action on what to do if a large percentage of power transformers instantly fail. It’s better to brainstorm now than to scramble in the middle of a blackout.
- Create loss of power operational plans for the food and healthcare industries. Planning ahead will prevent mass chaos from a powerful GMD event.
Living in a chaotic universe
We get so consumed in our daily lives, we forget we’re traveling in open space. The Earth we call home doesn’t have a roof over our heads, protecting us. There’s only a thin layer of atmosphere separating us from the many hazards of outer space.
So, we’re sitting ducks on a spinning rock, with the chaos of the universe staring down on us. Crazy, right?!
Not to mention, a massive fireball powers our tiny planet from 93 million miles away. And this ball of fire can end millions of years of evolution in the snap of a finger. I find this to be the biggest dose of humble pie.
What’s more, the Sun doesn’t care if the Super Bowl is tomorrow. Or, if artificial intelligence runs the world with humans taking a back seat. The Sun will simply do what it has done for billions of years. It’ll burn until its raging nuclear fusion engine can’t burn anymore. And if this isn’t mind-numbing enough, let’s go one step further. The Sun existed before humans, and more than likely it’ll exist long after humans.
For these reasons alone, we need to prepare ourselves for a powerful coronal mass ejection. At the very least, have a better defensive plan of action in place for an event that will one day strike. This way, we can ensure all human progress isn’t pushed back decades or more.
If a powerful coronal mass ejection hits Earth, do you think life forever would change? Do you fear coronal mass ejections, or do you think the fear is overblown?
Featured Image Photo Credit: NASA/SDO (AIA)
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Koosha started Engineer Calcs in 2020 to help people better understand the engineering and construction industry, and to discuss various science and engineering-related topics to make people think. He has been working in the engineering and tech industry in California for over 15 years now and is a licensed professional electrical engineer, and also has various entrepreneurial pursuits.
Koosha has an extensive background in the design and specification of electrical systems with areas of expertise including power generation, transmission, distribution, instrumentation and controls, and water distribution and pumping as well as alternative energy (wind, solar, geothermal, and storage).
Koosha is most interested in engineering innovations, the cosmos, our history and future, sports, and fitness.